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Spectre and Meltdown | High-Tech learns to wash it´s hands

14/1/2019

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The Semmelweis reflex or “Semmelweis effect” is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs or paradigms.
Medicine men and women still work on their discipline in washing hands to fight lethal super bugs and super fungis in hospitals but no one would dispute the relevance of hygiene today.
The medical establishment was sceptic when physician Ignaz Semmelweis  found clear evidence, by 1847, that mortality through puerperal fever ("childbed fever"), could be drastically reduced by simply washing hands.
He instituted a clinic-wide policy of mandatory hand washing between cutting up a body during autopsy and assisting in a birth. Despite proven success the experts of his time ignored his advice to clean and separate different work tasks.
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Source: npr.org - The Doctor Who Championed Hand-Washing And Briefly Saved Lives
High-Tech Industry also realizes it´s Semmelweis reflex on data protection and digital security and collectively started washing hands in a metaphorical sense to fight most recent super bugs like Spectre and Meltdown.​
Bugs and viruses in software, micro code or silicone can´t get prevented by washing hands, however, the traits of hygiene well translate into (software-) engineering disciplines since, it is a concept of clean separation of entities.
The skilled cut of a surgeon or the smart hack of an engineer are admirable but certainly not the only definition of success. The collective realization is needed that, data privacy is tightly connected with security and ultimately safety. New definitions of performance are needed since, what we face is not a technological crisis only. Recent Facebook hearing shows the need for clean separation, all the way from business models to digital implementation and makes the conflict of public, private and economic interests evident.
Given the opportunity cost of cyber crime, major data breaches, political destabilization or global financial crisis, we -societies, industries or markets- should overcome the Semmelweis reflex and establish common norms and standards for Trustworthy Computing.
In times where globalization turns into protectionism this seems a big ask and may create discomfort with a whole industry but it is possible. Similar to Civil Aviation back in 1944 where, the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation led to common, binding security standards and safety procedures which saved millions of lives.
Moreover, it shows that meaningful regulation can instill trust and enable global economic growth over decades. The Chicago Convention changed the face of an industry and keeps reminding us that innovation is not finished when making the possible happen but also requires relentless work on preventing what ought to be impossible.
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Source: The World Bank and B3A Data
Fix a problem before regulation makes it a crisis.
Wayne Brown, Ernst & Young - Ten lessons Financial Services can learn from other industries
It will probably take time to reach consensus in High-Tech Industry but, meanwhile let´s keep washing hands and remind all parties on the essence of integrity: Doing the right thing, even when no one is looking!
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Renewing Contracts | The Missing Bullet Holes

19/10/2018

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Star Treck - Mrs. Spock
Source: Shutterstock
Imagine, sellers would be rational individuals like Mr. Spock, the fictional character in the Star Trek media franchise - the commander of Starship Enterprise who always followed the rules of logic, never distracted by emotions.
I agree, this is neither realistic nor desirable to move mixed human-vulcans into sales roles. Some sales leaders would not want to lose their financial controllers either.
Experience tells, winning a new customer means 6 times more investment than maintaining an already loyal customer. Isn´t this a really good reason for you as a commander to go deep on what is driving the Enterprise towards customer loyalty?
I don't know anything, but I do know that everything is interesting if you go into it deeply enough.
Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize in Physics 1965
This usually is the point where measuring the world starts and big data is put into action. It begins with identifying statistically significant parameters. Try to understand what sets a successful contract renewal apart from those which did not renew. If you want to go beyond anecdotal evidence, a lot of data points are involved, but the effort is worth it. Aberdeen Group research states that Analytically Grounded Sales Teams average a 2.7 times greater annual increase in customer renewal rates. Meanwhile, such data analysis is well supported by BI tools or even Artificial Intelligence engines and it is backed by external business consultant experience.​
Business Acumen remains key to success in increasing the likelihood to renew a contract. Even though you may find significant correlations, it´s the causation which makes it relevant. The correlation between growth on ice-cream sales and the outbreak of bushfires in southern California maybe a strong correlation but it´s not the cause. Mind the difference between correlation and causation.
Turning good analytical work into concrete action is what makes the difference in business. Overhasty conclusions and bias on this last but most important step may put your whole endeavor at risk. Following historical anecdote shows why.
The United States Statistical Research Group (SRG) once used to be on mission to help win world war II. Sales is not war and trying to find a way to minimize the loss of airplanes through better armor is not business optimization. Surprisingly enough, we still can learn from their work.
YoY Advantages of Analytical Grounded Sales Teams
Source: Aberdeen Group, Sept. 2016 | "YoY Advantages of Analytical Grounded Sales Teams"
When American planes came back from engagements over Europe, they were covered in bullet holes like a Swiss cheese. But the damage wasn’t uniformly distributed across the aircraft. There were more bullet holes in the fuselage, not so many in the engines. So, how can the armor be optimized  on the weakest parts without negatively impacting the overall performance of the aircraft?
Columbia University professor Abraham Wald came up with a surprising answer: The armor, said Wald, doesn’t go where most of the bullet holes are. It goes where the bullet holes aren’t - on the engines!
You’d have planes coming back with bullet holes all over the wings, the fuselage, the nose — but none at all on the engine. Simply because those severely damaged engines did not return from their mission and therefore don´t show up in your analysis. Protecting engines and pilots better, increased the likelihood to return from the battlefield.

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By McGeddon - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

​Taking the recurring business scientifically to the next level implies a lot of work but it is the right choice in the digital era.  Even if you decide to start small, next time you assess the feedback of your customer satisfaction survey with your teams, make sure you especially understand where the bullet holes are missing - it might well be your blind spot hiding the lethal risk to your business mission.
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Forecast Accuracy | Don´t shoot the frog!

23/1/2017

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Forecast Accuracy
Source: Shutterstock
As kids, we asked the frog to show us the weather forecast. I´m sure the little friend tried hard but no matter how much we wanted him to either be precise or even change the weather, he had to realize that success in show biz can be reached much easier.
According an Accenture study, 75% of leaders come to the conclusion that they need to improve the accuracy of their forecast and 57% say that they have to get better at closing deals in forecast time frames. These are probably numbers close to the satisfaction level reported by frog owners.
How come, we seem to struggle with predicting our potential future business attainment? – We are dealing with a so called “Information Inefficiency”, a risk sourcing from an information deficit. It means we don´t know what will happen until it happened. So, in theory gathering information and managing deals on time will mitigate this risk and our forecast accuracy problem is solved.
However, the subject is far more complex since we are dealing with people, organizations and respective underlying political dynamics. Science refers to this risk category as “Alignment Inefficiency”. It describes the domain of risk sourcing from conflicting interests and -incentives within an organization. This important fact makes Forecast Management an interesting cultural aspect and sets it apart from sheer business discipline efforts – Forecast Management is all about Leadership!
Unarguably, the sales teams play a key role in mastering the forecast accuracy but we should not confuse Deal Management accountability on Seller level or Pipeline Management accountability on Management level with Forecast Management ownership on Leadership suite.
Forecasting is a team sport which, when done properly involves your whole organization to varying degree. Teaming up for success requires your people speaking the same language. Are your teams using the same taxonomy, following the same standards in assessing the business and is the final forecast puzzle seamlessly fitting together as one, ultimately reflecting the organizational commitment?
Sellers know their customers and deals best. The Bottom-Up approach is a good start but how do you assess required information without additionally distracting your motivated sellers from what they like best, doing business? – Seller Readiness and Deal Coaching are the first priorities. Getting this right, in right dose, is your ticket into a predictable deal management and a solid forecast foundation. The Best Way To Predict The Future Is To Create It!
When talking about the next level -the sales management assessment- we are already into the usual conflict of interest – ambition or reality. Clear answer: ambition belongs into the budget, business plan and the actual deal management, while reality is the main ingredient to the forecast. The Risks (Timing- and Alignment-Risk) remain as variables in the decision making. Having variables means options and scenarios to be considered during the forecast assessment.
Will the Risk deal offset another Upside or will the Risks/Upsides add up? … Do I have to adjust my P&L now, based on my Forecast or will the available resource still improve the business outlook in current business period? – It´s not easy but it all requires a deep understanding and clear sight on your business to get it right.
The view from the top in an organization provides us with the 360-degree view on the business to precisely navigate the curvy road ahead. Looking back on historic data and trendlines is tempting but also dangerous in anticipating the future. We easily miss the game changing moment in our market. Mark Twain well framed it: “History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Even more so, it generates a false sense of security which distracts from analyzing current business dynamics or going deep on deal progression.
Strong management commitment, insights on operational risks, specific deal challenges and visibility on the underlying decision making processes should equip us well to take a balanced decision on our forecast and conclude orchestrated corrective action on our business to come.
Finally, measuring Forecast precision is a helpful indication when it comes to supporting a continuous organizational learning process. Using it as an organizational goal, it triggers counterproductive corrective action on the symptoms, not on the cause.
The Forecast ought to be your uncompromised view on the future, it will not change the weather nor your business but it allows us to choose where to go or which action to take – cultivate your Forecast integrity with caution, don´t allow to compromise it with dishonesty nor load it with wrong ambition.
You can shoot the frog for bad news but like it or not, your Forecast accuracy is ultimately reflecting the level of trust within your organization.
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    Andreas Engel

    Andreas Engel

    ​is an experienced business leader working 25+ year in high-tech industry - leading, growing and transforming high-performance sales organizations, balancing short term results with long term strategy to drive new business growth.

    Andreas Engel

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